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The global currency markets ended the previous week in a positive zone, but they showed clear sideways trends. In fact, we can say that investors have taken a wait-and-see attitude due to the uncertainty of what we can expect in the near future.
It can be recalled that the main growth impulse in demand for risky assets during the first half of this year was J. Biden's unprecedented measures to stimulate the US economy and provide physical support to the population with money. In view of this, investors were optimistic, expecting a strong breakthrough in the growth of the US economy and the global economy as a whole. However, that did not happen. America, having launched "helicopter money" in the hopes that this would pull out a country drowning in a coronavirus pandemic, only stimulated a parasitic lifestyle among the lower strata of the population, when a huge mass of Americans who worked in low-paid jobs in the pre-pandemic years simply stopped walking to work and live on government-provided financial aid measures.
In such a situation, it is not necessary to expect an increase in employment in the country, hence the marked decline in business activity, and an increase in inflation. America does not work, but it spends not earned money, which caused a sharp rise in inflation. This was expected by both the Fed and the Ministry of Finance, but at the same time, they stated that the increase in inflation would occur amid strong growth of the national economy, but this does not happen. As a result, investors started to get scared and were forced to be careful. This is the reason for the prolonged sideways trend in the stock, currency, and commodity markets.
This week, all the attention of the market will be turned to the publication of US employment data for May. These values can clearly become decisive for investors for at least a month. It is worth noting that the US Department of Labor expects an increase in the number of new jobs at 650,000 and a slight decline in the unemployment rate from 6.1% to 5.9%.
We believe that any noticeable deviations from these values, both in the direction of growth and decline, can excite the markets. If the number of new jobs still rises above 650,000, this will be a good incentive for the growth of demand for company shares and, in general, increase optimism in the currency markets. In this case, the US dollar will locally increase, but it will continue to remain under pressure on the wave of demand for risk. In addition, this news will push up the demand for oil, whose price is growing not only due to this process but also due to the dollar's devaluation.
However, another scenario with the opposite effect is possible, if the employment data turn out to be significantly worse than expected. Here, the continuation of the correction in all markets will be observed. In this situation, the US dollar will be under pressure again. This will continue until the demand for it as a safe haven rises amid the failed plan of the Fed and the Treasury for more active recovery of the US economy.
Today, two of the world's largest financial centers in America and Britain are closed due to a holiday, so we expect extremely low market activity. There will also be a lull before the release of American important statistics.
Forecast of the day:
The USD/CAD pair remains in a narrow range of 1.2020-1.2140. We expect that it will not leave this range today.
The GBP/USD is still consolidating in the range of 1.4100-1.4225, from which it will remain today.
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