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GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed a fall to the lower border of the side trend corridor on Friday and a rebound from it. Thus, a reversal was made in favor of the British dollar, and a new growth process was started in the direction of the upper limit of the corridor. However, on Friday, the quotes performed a new turn in favor of the American, and a new fall started. In general, the pound/dollar pair continues to move similar to the euro/dollar pair. Traffic is also uncontrolled inside the side corridor. The information background on Friday was the same as for the euro/dollar pair. Traders paid attention to the same Nonfarm Payrolls report, thanks to which the pound rose in the end. Also, in the UK, the business activity index in the construction sector was released, which supported the British in morning trading. In general, the pair is very firmly stuck inside the corridor, so it will take a strong information background for traders to start a new trend. This week, the important news will only be on Thursday and Friday. On June 10, America will release a report on inflation for May, which the Fed representatives pay great attention to. According to traders' expectations, inflation will continue to grow and may reach 4.7% y/y. These figures may again force traders to buy the British and get rid of the Americans. On Friday, the UK will release reports on GDP, industrial production, speeches by the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, and several representatives of the monetary committee, which makes decisions on making changes to monetary policy. Let me remind you that recently some members of the Bank of England have hinted almost openly that the regulator will consider raising the rate in early 2022. Thus, they can receive important information from the Briton.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair rebounded from the corrective level of 0.0% (1.4240), turned in favor of the US dollar, and began the process of falling in the direction of the level of 1.4003, which is constantly interrupted. The upward trend corridor continues to indicate the bullish mood of traders. Closing the pair's rate under it will favor a further drop in quotes and change the mood of traders to "bearish."
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, everything still rests on the trend line, along which the movement of quotes of the pound/dollar pair continues. Closing quotes under this line will work in favor of the US dollar and start falling in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513). As long as this does not happen, the growth process can be resumed at any time in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.4812).
GBP/USD – Weekly.
The pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line on the weekly chart. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound remain.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Friday, there were quite a few important events in the UK and the US. However, the Nonfarm Payrolls is the only report that affects the pound/dollar pair.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
On Monday, the calendars of economic events in the UK and the US are empty, and this situation will continue until Thursday.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The COT report of June 1 on the British pound showed that the mood of the major players has sharply become more "bearish." During the week, the "Non-commercial" category of traders closed as many as 6,544 short contracts and opened only half a thousand long contracts. However, these changes did not affect the British exchange rate. It is still in an upward trend. Other categories of traders also did not behave too actively, and a total of an equal number of long and short contracts were opened during the reporting week. Thus, in general, the "bullish" mood remains, which is supported by the total number of open contracts for speculators: the number of longs exceeds the number of shorts twice.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Purchases of the British dollar were recommended if there is a rebound from the lower border of the side corridor on the hourly chart with a target of 1.4216. I couldn't get to the goal. New purchases – when rebounding from the lower border of the side corridor or the level of 1.4136 for the same purpose. It is recommended to sell the pound if the daily chart closes below the trend line.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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