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Today is the beginning of a week that is extremely important for traders in the European session. On Thursday, the European Central Bank will hold a meeting, the expectation of the results of which caused a certain stagnation of the euro/dollar quotes. In turn, the pound, on the contrary, weakened its position amid concerns about a possible delay in the final lifting of restrictions in the UK on June 21. The delay is possible in the event of a surge in the number of infections with a new strain of Delta coronavirus, which was first detected in India.
In addition, the pound has almost completely lost the gains it gained after the publication of the report of the United States Department of Labor, which is generally not surprising, given the content of this very report. The US labor market continues to recover and will recover further.
However, the single European currency has gone into a pronounced sideways movement and is in no hurry to adjust. To some extent, you can refer to an empty macroeconomic calendar. However, what is happening with the pound indicates that this is not entirely true.
The stagnation in the single European currency is rather more related to the expectation of the meeting of the board of the European Central Bank, which will be held this week. And investors would rather like to clarify what comments will follow immediately after this very meeting. Moreover, there is some uncertainty about the position of the European regulator on the issue of inflation, which continues to grow. Moreover, there are all the prerequisites for the fact that the growth of inflation can only accelerate. In other words, market participants do not understand at all what to expect – signals to tighten monetary policy or that everything will remain unchanged. It is this very uncertainty that plunges the single European currency into a kind of stagnation.
Last Friday, the EURUSD currency pair showed a relatively high speculative interest during the start of the US trading session, which coincided with the publication of US statistics.
The intense upward movement of the price returned the quote to the previously passed level of 1.2160, where stagnation was eventually formed.
Analyzing the current trading chart, you can see a relatively narrow price fluctuation compared to the dynamics on June 4. The key coordinates, relative to which the growth of trading volumes is possible, are considered to be the following values: 1.2140 in the case of a downward development; 1.2185 in upward development.
The GBPUSD currency pair followed the euro up last Friday. However, it is worth considering that the quote follows within the boundaries of the previously established side channel between 1.4100 and 1.4240, where there was a rebound from the lower border at 1.4100 with a movement towards the middle level of the channel 1.4172.
Analyzing the current trading chart, we can see that the price rebound from the average level of 1.4172 almost managed to return sellers to the lower border of the side channel of 1.4100, where a reduction in the volume of short positions again occurred.
The tactics of trading based on consecutive rebounds are relevant among traders. However, at the same time, it is worth considering the strategy of breaking a particular border of the side channel.
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