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The May data on US PPI has exceeded expectations. According to the report, it rose 0.8% month-over-month, and by 6.6% year-on-year. Meanwhile, core PPI met expectations and jumped 4.8% year-on-year.
Monitoring this indicator is very important because market participants use this as a measure for inflation. To add to that, it is published ahead of the Fed meeting, during which the committee discusses future actions on monetary policy.
But despite the latest data, the Federal Reserve is firm on its belief that the recent surge in inflationary pressures are temporary.
And this Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is due to speak to announce their decision on monetary policy
Their action will determine whether gold will surpass $ 1,900 this week, or fall below $ 1,850.
In any case, OCBC Bank said it projects gold to drop to $ 1,500 by the end of 2022.
OCBC is the latest institution to publish a negative outlook for gold. According to them, real bond yields will rise, as inflation concerns begin to subside.
They project real yield on US Treasuries to hit zero, or even drop to a negative rate in the near future. Then, by the end of 2021, it will slide to -0.6%. And since gold usually moves in the opposite direction, it is inevitable that its price will drop below $ 1,900.
So, by the end of this year, gold will value at around $ 1,800, and then become more stable at $ 1,500. Prices will recover only in 2022.
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