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Yesterday's trading on the main currency pair of the Forex market was again dominated by bearish sentiment. This time, as some experts write, the demand for the US dollar as a safe asset has increased due to the emergence of new COVID-19 strains and, as a result, outbreaks of daily amounts of infections in some countries or even regions. In my purely personal opinion, such an explanation of the strengthening of the US currency is not worth it. I am more than sure that other factors demand the dollar and create support for the US currency, including technical ones. At the same time, new strains do exist. Let's take the delta strain, for example. However, this is not as dangerous and serious as it was a year earlier when the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic was observed. Instead, it is time to argue that new outbreaks of coronavirus can affect the global recovery of the world economy. In this case, the dollar is a more popular asset.
Now I suggest that we switch our attention to the economic calendar to look at the few reports from yesterday and highlight today's releases. Of yesterday's macroeconomic indicators, investors were primarily interested in the change in consumer prices in Germany and the indicator of consumer confidence in the United States. Let's start with Germany, where the consumer price index in the leading European economy fully met economists' expectations both in annual and monthly terms. At the same time, some economists believe that this is a lull before a new inflationary surge, which usually occurs during periods of economic recovery after a particular crisis. If so, and inflation in Germany continues to rise, the ECB will get carte blanche for an earlier tightening of its monetary policy, which will most likely result in a reduction in the volume of the majestic easing program. Still, I think it is premature to talk about the beginning of the cycle of raising interest rates now.
But the indicator of consumer confidence in the United States exceeded the forecast value of 119 and amounted to 127.3. I think this is a very positive moment, which emphasizes that the economy in the United States is recovering from COVID-19 at a very rapid pace. Today is already Wednesday. We will wait for Friday's reports on the labor market, which will strengthen or refute the opinion about a faster-than-expected recovery of the world's leading economy. However, today, we are waiting for a busy day. I recommend paying attention to the data on the German labor market, the consumer price index of the eurozone, and employment data from the United States from ADP, which market participants often perceive as a leading indicator of official Nonfarm Payrolls. And the last thing I would like to pay attention to before considering the charts is that today is the last day of the month, and the market will close the June trades, which always conceals an element of uncertainty in the price movement.
Daily
As can be seen on the daily chart, yesterday, as a result of the decline, the EUR/USD pair slightly went down from the range outlined on the chart, in which the price consolidation took place. Can this output be considered true? I suppose not yet. Given the upcoming important data, especially Friday's labor reports from the United States, we will talk about the truth and, in general, about the current week's results with full justification only on Monday, taking into account the completion of the current significant week. If we touch on trading recommendations, I suggest that the main trading idea is still to consider sales, which can be carefully tried after short-term price rises to the area of 1.1930/35.
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