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The euro/dollar pair moved in a side channel yesterday. While moving up, the price tested the 5 EMA - 1.1882 (red thin line) and went down, testing the 76.4% retracement level - 1.1837 (red dashed line). The market closed the daily candlestick at 1.1849. Today, the market may continue to move down. And as per the economic calendar, news is expected at 12.30 UTC (euro) and 12.30 UTC (dollar).
Trend analysis (Fig. 1).
Today, the market from the level of 1.1849 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick) is likely to move downward and attempt to reach the historical resistance level of 1.1811 (blue dotted line). After testing this level, it is possible to begin moving upward with the target at 1.1899 - the 14.6% retracement level (blue dashed line).
Figure 1 (Daily chart).
Comprehensive analysis:
General conclusion:
Today, the price from the level of 1.1849 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick) is likely to move downward and attempt to reach the historical resistance level of 1.1811 (blue dotted line). After testing this level, it is possible to begin moving upward with the target at 1.1899 - the 14.6% retracement level (blue dashed line).
Alternative scenario: the price from the level of 1.1849 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick) will try to continue moving downward with the target at 1.1811 - the historical support level (blue dotted line). After testing this level, it may continue declining with the target at 1.1786 - the 85.4% retracement level (red dotted line).
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