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Lee Goehring, the Managing Partner of Rozencwajg Associates, said that gold prices may significantly increase in the next few years since inflation has already set in. If so, this will cause panic among gold buyers.
Currently, there is already 5% inflation and we can definitely say that with this indicator, it will last for six months or even a year. It is possible that this will lead to a huge rise in prices, as it was in the 1970s.
Goehring noted that the printing of money around the world will not pass without consequences. And these consequences will begin to manifest themselves next year.
One of the important elements that is currently missing in the risk of price growth is the psychology of inflation.
According to Lee Goehring, there were two elements in the 1970s – inflation and inflationary psychology. This was proven by the Arab oil embargo in 1973, which led to a sharp increase in oil prices.
At this time, there is only inflation, but no inflation psychology. However, nothing prevents this from changing in 2022.
It is just that there will be some event that will provoke inflationary psychology. These may be unfavorable weather conditions that will lead to a sharp growth in world grain prices, a currency crisis, or just a surge in oil prices to $ 200.
In any case, inflation will become one of the main problems of this new decade.
There are two important things to keep track of in the oil space: OPEC members have great power in pricing, while oil supplies from non-OPEC countries continue to decline.
The biggest competition for oil, which is under the supervision of OPEC, is the oil of non-OPEC countries. It should be noted that when the oil supply from non-OPEC countries declines, the organization of oil expert countries gets a market share and price power.
Goehring does not believe that electric vehicles will completely remove oil from the market since the demand for oil will noticeably grow in the future. According to him, oil production will exceed 100 million barrels per day by the end of the fourth quarter of 2022. This is the same figure as before.
According to such data, the total global demand will exceed the total global oil production capacity. This has never happened before. This means that there is a risk of another surge in oil.
Any supply disruptions will have a strong impact on prices.
It won't be surprising if the price of oil rises by more than $ 100 at some point in 2021. And in 2022, there will be a sharp increase, and the price will be at the level of 120-160 dollars per barrel.
At this point, investors will seek protection from inflation, and this will inevitably lead them back to gold. This will most likely happen in 2023-2025.
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