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GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair quotes on Monday performed two rebounds at once from the corrective level of 76.4% (1.3906). Moreover, today - the third one. Thus, the pair again performed a reversal in favor of the US dollar and fell to the level of 1.3859. The rebound of quotes from this level will allow us to count on a return to the level of 1.3906, and closing below it will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3800). Even though the movements yesterday and today are quite active, there is practically no information background. There is no economic news right now, and traders will pay attention to the US inflation report. Currently, no economic information is being received from the UK at all. But there are interesting reports concerning the coronavirus and its spread. Let me remind you that in recent weeks the number of cases has been growing by 20-30 thousand per day, which should have forced the British government to postpone the decision to lift all quarantine restrictions from July 19 as part of a four-stage plan. However, yesterday, British Health Minister Sajid Javid confirmed that all restrictions will be lifted on July 19. Javid said that by July 19, the entire adult population of the country will receive at least one vaccination. At the moment, 87% of the adult population of Britain has already received one vaccination, and 66% have received both doses of the vaccine. Thus, according to Javid, Britons may continue to get sick with coronavirus and its new strains. However, vaccines will reliably protect Britons from complications and serious diseases. Thus, there will be no pressure on the medical system. "We cannot eradicate the virus, so it will remain with us for many years," Sajid Javid said. "There will be no better time, respectively, for lifting all restrictions," the minister summed up.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour chart performed a close above the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3870). However, over the past few hours, a reversal was made in favor of the US dollar and closed below this level. Thus, on the 4-hour chart, the fall of quotes can be continued in the direction of the Fibo level of 38.2% (1.3642). Also, a lot will depend on the level of 1.3859 on the hourly chart. The nearest target is the level of 1.3800. There are no emerging divergences today.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Monday, the calendars of economic events in the UK and the US were empty. Thus, the information background did not have any impact on traders during the day.
News calendar for the US and the UK:
UK - Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will make a speech (07:30 UTC).
US - consumer price index (12:30 UTC).
On Tuesday, the governor of the Bank of England will give a speech in the UK, which may affect the mood of traders. The US inflation report is also quite important. Thus, the information background may be average in strength today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report on July 7 for the British showed that the mood of the major players has changed again in favor of the bulls. During the reporting week, speculators increased 4,732 long contracts and 1,870 short contracts. Thus, the "bullish" mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders has slightly increased. But in general, the situation continues to be very similar to the situation for the euro. The "bullish" mood of major players remains, and the advantage of open long contracts is about 1.5 times. Thus, the British dollar retains the chances of resuming growth.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations to traders:
I recommend new purchases of the British with the targets of 1.3906 and 1.3972 if the pair performs a new rebound from the level of 1.3859 on the hourly chart. I recommend selling the pound today if a close is made under the level of 1.3859 with targets of 1.3800 and 1.3741.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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