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Global markets ended the week with an increase in fears amid new reports about the aggressiveness of the Indian strain of coronavirus infection, as well as reports that former US President D. Trump is resuming legal disputes over the fairness of the presidential election last year.
Against the background of this news, most stock indices in both Europe and the United States have significantly adjusted downwards. The value of commodity and commodity assets also suffered, and the US dollar, on the contrary, received support.
What is the reason for this market behavior?
We believe that it is wrong to assume that COVID problems are the main ones. Friday's fall in stock indices with all the ensuing consequences is most likely an adjustment of positions in the conditions of the end of the month. Most likely, the news feed of the media became an occasion, as it often happens. Watching everything that is happening, it cannot be argued that this news, as well as the message regarding Trump, appeared unexpectedly.
In general, the dynamics does not correlate with the publication of important data on inflation indicators in America. The values of the basic price index for personal consumption decreased last month in growth to 0.4% after a sharp rise of 0.7% in the spring. On an annual basis, there is also a slowdown in its growth rate to 3.5% against the expectation of an increase to 3.7% and last year's value of 3.4%.
The figures for the growth of income and expenses of Americans were also positive. The increase in these indicators is still a consequence of large-scale support measures in the form of benefits to the population.
What can we expect today and next week in the markets?
We believe that we will see a pullback upward today. The dynamics of stock index futures in Europe and the United States indicates this, and there is also a strong growth in stock indices in Asia, which fully confirms our thesis of simple profit-taking at the end of the month.
On this wave, most likely, the US dollar will be under pressure. If the market sentiment does not change, then the correction of the dollar will lead to an increase in demand for gold and crude oil. If such a trend begins, it will be closer to the opening of trading in America.
We do not expect any noticeable changes in the markets this week. August is traditionally considered a "dead season" in the financial markets due to large-scale holidays, so if something happens, it will only happen if some negative or, conversely, positive extreme news appears.
Forecast of the day:
The EUR/USD pair corrected on Friday after reaching a local maximum. An improvement in market sentiment may lead to a resumption of its growth. On this wave, the pair will receive support and resume growth to 1.1910, and then to 1.1940 after overcoming the level of 1.1875.
The XAU/USD pair found support at the level of 1808.65. The growth of positive sentiment and the weakening of the dollar will support the growth of the price of spot gold. We expect the pair to grow by 1833.00.
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