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So far, bitcoin is very clearly following the forecast, making the scenario of a decline in the sideways range of 28392.99-41980.24 more and more likely. On the chart, we see that this is the fourth confirmation of the strong mirror level of 41980.24, which it cant surpass yet.
In addition, the news background is very poor: there are no high-profile news, no drivers for a surge in volatility either.
Meanwhile, the number of bitcoins at addresses where 100 to 10,000 BTC is stored has reached 9.23 million bitcoins for the first time in history. At the same time, data from the Glassnode platform shows that over the last week of July, the number of active bitcoin addresses increased by 30%, from 250,000 to 325,000 active users.
According to the seven-day exponential moving average in Glassnode statistics, this is the largest spike recorded after a 41% drop. Then the number of active addresses decreased from 425,000 in January to less than 245,000 addresses in early July.
The current level of activity corresponds to the levels that were in July 2020, when bitcoin was trading around $ 11,300. Along with a significant increase in the number of active users, BTC investors accumulated large volumes of cryptocurrency at the end of July.
At the same time, the analytical company Santiment emphasizes a new record high in the number of bitcoins on addresses that contain from 100 to 10,000 BTC. As of August 1, it reached 9.23 million bitcoins ($364 billion). The previous record high was recorded on April 5, just a week before the bitcoin price surpassed the record high of $64,000.
"Over the past four weeks, approximately 170,000 BTC more has been accumulated at these addresses. This staggering pace was last observed at the end of December 2020, right before the impulse bullish growth began in 2021 and prices jumped from $29,000 to $40,800 in the first week of the year," they note in Santiment.
Can this be considered a harbinger of a new bullish turn? It's unlikely that everything is so linear here. At least, it is difficult to conclude that the growth will happen now.
On the chart, after a technical rebound from the resistance of 41980.24, we see a reversal. The only hope for a possible growth is left by a stop near the level of 38610.88 (red dotted line). A rebound from it up can create the prerequisites for another testing of 41980.24 for strength.
But if the horizontal 38610.88 is broken from top to bottom with consolidation under it, there is every chance for a medium-term decline in the sideways range of 28392.99-41980.24.
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