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Gold prices are still below $ 1,800 per ounce. HSBC Bank's commodity analysts warn investors that gold profits may be limited in the near future, as the Federal Reserve's plan to normalize its monetary policy leads to an increase in bond yields and the US dollar.
Moreover, gold prices may fall as central banks are on the verge of changing their monetary policy. Everyone is waiting for the Fed to reduce its monthly bond purchases by the end of the year.
A report by HSBC analysts published on Tuesday said that fiscal and monetary policy no longer supports gold in the United States, and all over the world too. Accordingly, investments in gold are declining, while the dollar is gradually strengthening due to the slowdown in the global economy. It should be noted that this gradual strengthening of the US dollar will negatively affect gold.
HSBC noted that the rise in consumer prices will not have a big impact on gold if inflationary pressures lead to higher bond yields. The yield on 10-year bonds is currently close to a 4-month high of 1.62%.
Not only are bond yields rising, but expectations are also growing that the Fed may begin to tighten its monetary policy by raising interest rates until the second half of 2022. The CME Fed Watch Tool shows that markets see more than a 47% chance of an interest rate hike by June next year.
In turn, commodity analysts at TD Securities are not ready to give up the precious metal, as they see the growing effect of stagflation.
In a report published last week, commodity analysts TD Securities reported that they initiated a long call spread in the amount of $ 1850/2000 for April gold futures. The Canadian bank expects that gold prices will rise significantly within four months due to this transaction.
Trading is taking place amid stagnation in the gold market due to weak investment demand, which is unable to keep prices above $ 1,800 per ounce.
The Canadian bank expects that the shorting of the gold market could trigger more significant momentum in the near term.
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