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The mood of the market remains stable on Tuesday, exchange rate fluctuations are insignificant, and the yields of sovereign T-bills are still at fairly high levels, but the stock markets practically do not notice this due to the good reporting of American companies.
The German business confidence index fell for the fourth month in a row to a six-month low. The pressure on Germany's manufacturing sector does not weaken, as supply disruptions lead to a decrease in capacity utilization, despite the high volume of orders. The threat of a deepening crisis due to problems in logistics is becoming more and more obvious.
However, the demand for risk remains consistently high, and oil prices are not declining. OPEC + will hold its next meeting next week, but there is no reason to expect an increase in supplies beyond the previously approved schedule. In this case, there will be no surprises from this side. Meanwhile, the demand for risk dominates, under the pressure of the yen and franc.
NZD/USD
A fairly strong increase in inflation in Q3 (above forecasts), especially a sharp increase in core inflation, remains the main factor in predicting the RBNZ's likely actions. According to ANZ Bank, the worst is yet to come – rising energy prices and stretched supply chains that are trying to meet Christmas demand will lead to inflation rising to 5.8% yoy in the first quarter of 2022.
At the same time, ANZ emphasizes that it is "extremely unclear" how exactly and when inflation will peak, but it has no doubt about one thing – it can get out of control without decisive action by the RBNZ. Hence, a rate increase should be expected in November by at least a quarter of a percent, possibly by 0.5% at once, and, in general, the Central Bank will raise the rate at the earliest opportunity, bringing it to 2% by August 2022. Such rates will make the New Zealand dollar the leader in profitability, and the pressure of bulls will be very strong.
According to the CFTC report, no change remains in the futures market. A slight bullish advantage (+461 million) remains, and the target price is directed upward and above the long-term average.
It is assumed that the growth of NZD/USD will continue. The nearest resistance zone is 0.7200/10. A sharp breakdown of this level can strengthen the impulse. The target is the level of 0.7312.
AUD/USD
According to NAB Bank, the RBA will lag behind the US, UK, and New Zealand in normalizing indicators after the pandemic. Such a conclusion has quite strong grounds. First, Australia's core inflation was much lower than in other countries before the pandemic.
Second, employment in the country recovered significantly faster than in the US and UK, while wage growth did not accelerate, which indirectly indicates lower inflationary expectations.
Accordingly, if the RBNZ has already started the rate growth cycle, the Bank of England hints that it can make the first increase before the New Year. The Fed expects to complete the asset repurchase program by the summer of 2022, while on the contrary, the RBA is not considering measures to normalize the rate earlier than 2024. Such a difference in approaches will make the AUD less profitable against other currencies, and even the likely continuation of the increase in energy prices will not change the picture significantly.
The Australian dollar's net short position decreased by 755 million during the reporting week, reflecting an overall increase in interest in risk, but the bearish advantage is still significant (-5.685 billion). The estimated price goes up, which suggests an increase in bullish sentiment.
It can be assumed that the Australian dollar will try to strengthen under the pressure of global trends, but the growth of the AUD/USD pair will be limited and lag behind the NZD. The Australian dollar has approached the upper border of the descending channel. It is necessary to break through the resistance zone of 0.7540/70 so that the chances of continued growth become higher. Given that the calculated price rises, then there might be an attempt to consolidate above.
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