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Bitcoin saw another drop amounting to $2,500 on Thursday, November 18, recording a total loss of $6,500 over the past four days. So far, such a decrease in the cryptocurrency does not give reasons to panic and conclude "everything is gone." The cryptocurrency is declining, but this does not mean that it will collapse.
The current wave counting, which will be discussed further below, assumes that the upward section of the trend has completed its construction. If so, then the construction of a new, at least three-wave structure has now begun. And within this structure, Bitcoin can drop to $45,000 per coin.
Are there fundamental reasons for such a decline? In my opinion, there are, but the question is how the market interprets them. It's no secret that a lot depends on the mood of the players. If the majority of participants believe in further price growth, then whatever the news background, Bitcoin will increase in value.
However, I believe that the central banks of the world have taken a course to tighten monetary policy. And this means that investments, especially risky investments, will become less and less attractive.
The times when funds are placed on deposits will return again. But to do this, you first need to wait for a decrease in inflation and an increase in interest rates. Nevertheless, the first step has already been taken in the USA – the stimulus program has begun to decline.
Rumors about an infrastructure package of investments in the American economy have been circulating for a long time. And this week, US President Joe Biden officially signs this bill into law. And it is not just a statement of how much money will be sent and at what time. It also supplements tax legislation, in particular on cryptocurrencies.
Now, all transactions over $10,000 must be registered with the US Internal Revenue Service (IRS). All brokers and operators of the cryptocurrency market are now required to report such transactions to the IRS. Data on the sender and recipient of digital assets will also be provided.
Of course, some of the investors immediately dropped out, as they simply do not want to get into the field of view of the Tax Administration.
Also at this time, there are rumors about another bill that will amend the Tax Code. This is a new tax on retained earnings, which will be "written off" from the owners of assets if the asset itself has risen in price during the reporting year, even if it has not been sold by the owner. Such news reduces the attractiveness of many assets, particularly Bitcoin.
The current upward trend is still beyond doubt. The wave pattern was refined after the instrument made a successful attempt to break through the maximum of the assumed wave 3. Now the whole picture looks like an impulsive five-wave upward trend section, which began its construction on July 20.
However, the exit of quotes over the past two weeks from the reached highs may also mean the completion of the expected wave 5, which in this case will be shortened. At the moment, I'm leaning towards this option. Especially if Bitcoin makes a successful attempt to break through its past local low, which is now considered the minimum of wave 4.
If this assumption is correct, the decline will continue within the first wave of a new downward trend segment, which may take at least a month or two to build. And Bitcoin, at this time, will not strive to the $100,000 mark, but to the $45,000 mark. It is too early to talk about a complete collapse of BTC.
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