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The next OPEC+ meeting will take place in early January, in which the group may update its planned schedule for increasing production. So far, OPEC+ has not given any indication, but the probability of an increase in production beyond the schedule does represent a serious potential risk for the markets.
The second risk option is that historically shale oil production has grown rapidly, and there is a chance that if prices remain at around $80 per barrel of Brent crude for a long time, companies may seek to increase production. Climate discourse can slow this down.
Brent crude oil prices may remain high in 2022. During the year, prices will average about $ 70 per barrel, especially taking into account the potential of the summer tourist season.
The summer tourist season can be supported by both the reopening associated with COVID-19 and the depressed winter tourist season, which forces people to abandon plans.
Rapid economic growth combined with heavy supply chains has led to inflation. Inflation can have a negative impact on growth, damaging oil prices and, consequently, the argument that oil prices will remain high. In addition, the Fed's tightening of monetary policy may slow down the market.
If prices remain high in the next few months, the possibility of higher capital expenditures for producers will remain another risk. However, despite this, analysts expect oil markets to perform well in 2022.
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