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The pound is likely to be under pressure today due to a slowdown in retail sales growth from 4.7% to 3.0%. Such a sharp decline in consumer activity, combined with recent data on industrial production, indicates a sharp slowdown in the British economy, which has still not recovered from the consequences of 2020. So the prospects for the pound are quite sad.
A short stagnation along the 1.3600 GBPUSD level was completed by speculative jumps, where as a result the rate dropped below the 1.3580 mark. This indicates a high interest in short positions among market participants, which may lead to a subsequent weakening of the value of the pound.
Thus, the upward cycle of December 20, 2021 may well be disrupted, which will lead to a gradual recovery of downward interest in the market if a number of trading conditions coincide.
The RSI technical instrument moves in the lower area of the indicator in a four-hour period, signaling the prevailing downward interest in the market. At the same time, the RSI D1 is approaching the level of 50, thereby confirming the signal to sell will come from the market only after crossing the middle line from top to bottom.
Expectations and prospects
In this situation, a control signal to sell will be received from the market at the moment when the price is kept below the local low on January 18 at 1.3572. This step will lead to an increase in the volume of short positions, which will lead to a weakening of the pound in the direction of 1.3500-1.3400. Only a gradual recovery of the exchange rate can change the upward cycle.
A comprehensive indicator analysis gives a sell signal based on short-term and intraday periods due to a gradual downward course. Technical indicators in the medium term are oriented towards an upward cycle, signaling a purchase.
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