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According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair also continued the growth process on Monday. A close was made above the corrective level of 50.0% (1.3454), after which the growth continues today in the direction of the upper boundary of the downward trend corridor. The pair is already literally a couple of points away from this line. I expect that a strong signal will be formed near this line. Either the pair will perform a rebound from it, or closure over it. And this signal can determine the direction of the pair's movement until Thursday when the most important event of the week for the British will take place – the meeting of the Bank of England. I have already said that, according to forecasts, the probability of an interest rate increase is very high. Such a decision may cause new growth of the British, but it will be only on Thursday. For example, the ECB is unlikely to even put in a word about raising the rate, but at the same time, the European currency showed even more impressive growth yesterday.
Thus, now the graphics decide, not the information background. A rebound from the upper line of the descending corridor will work in favor of the US currency and the resumption of the fall towards the levels of 1.3384 and 1.3299. But more long-lasting conclusions can be made on Thursday. Today in the UK, a report on PMI business activity in the manufacturing sector for January was released. It rose from 56.9 points to 57.3 points. However, it is unlikely that an increase of 0.4 points far from the most important index led to the fact that the pound sterling rose by another 60 points in the morning. There were several other reports in Britain, but they had even less weight in the eyes of traders than the business activity report. Thus, today there is only the ISM index in the USA, which has the opportunity to influence the mood of traders, but at the same time, the Briton has been growing for two days without any informational reasons. The reaction to the ISM index can be very "fast".
On the 4-hour chart, the pair performed a return to the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.3457), and then closed above it. Fixing the pair's rate above the level of 50.0% allows us to count on continued growth in the direction of the next corrective level of 38.2% (1.3642). However, at this very time, a "bearish" divergence is brewing in the CCI indicator, which also allows you to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and the beginning of a fall. Closing quotes below the level of 50.0% will similarly work in favor of the beginning of a fall in the direction of the corrective level of 61.8% (1.3274).
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders is now almost "neutral". The number of short contracts concentrated in the hands of speculators only slightly exceeds the number of long contracts. The pound sterling is just more likely to continue falling. But, as in the case of the euro currency, the Fed meeting and its results have not yet been taken into account in the figures of the report, and this week will be a meeting of the Bank of England, which can also greatly affect the mood of speculators and their actions in the market. Therefore, I will draw a conclusion after the COT reports are received after all three meetings of the central banks.
News calendar for the USA and the UK:
UK - PMI index for the manufacturing sector (09:30 UTC).
US - ISM manufacturing index (15:00 UTC).
On Tuesday, the calendars of economic events in the UK and the US contain one entry each. Thus, the influence of the information background on the mood of traders today will be weak.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations to traders:
I recommend new sales of the British in case of a rebound from the upper line of the descending corridor on the hourly chart with targets of 1.3454 and 1.3384. I recommend buying the British dollar if a closure is made over the descending corridor on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3609.
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