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France has made its choice: the pro-European centrist Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected president for a second term. What does this mean for the European currency?
The current President of France, Macron, won a convincing victory over his far-right rival Marine Le Pen in the second round of the presidential election. 58% of voters voted for him.
At the opening of trading on Monday, the news of Macron's victory caused a sharp rise in the single European currency. Compared to Friday's session, it jumped by almost 50 points against the dollar. The euro exchange rate was 1.0841.
However, a little later, the EUR/USD pair negated all its early successes and resumed the downward trend. At the time of preparation of the report, the euro fell to the previous week's low – around 1.0761.
The pressure on the EUR/USD pair was exerted by the statement of European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. On Sunday, she made it clear that the ECB does not intend to raise interest rates in July.
The euro also suffered from the comments of the Executive Vice-president of the European Commission Valdis Dombrovskis.
The official said that the EU's highest executive authority is already working on the sixth package of sanctions against Russia. One of its points is the introduction of an oil embargo.
Recently, Europe's rejection of Russian raw materials has been the main trigger for the markets. And he will continue to be in the spotlight in the coming days.
Analysts believe that Macron's victory in the presidential race can significantly accelerate the imposition of sanctions against Russia.
As you know, the French leader plays a key role in European diplomacy on the situation in Ukraine. His re-election should not lead to new accents, as it would be in the case of Le Pen's victory.
Nevertheless, Macron's success should be perceived with reservations. Le Pen showed her best result in history.
And the abstinence rate of young people in these presidential elections was more than 40%. This indicates a rather large distrust of the rule of Macron.
Now it is extremely important for the French president to get a parliamentary majority. Elections to the country's highest legislative body will be held in June 2022.
Macron needs to snatch this victory, because this is his last chance to leave his mark on the country's economy. He will no longer be able to fight for the presidency.
Analysts predict that the French leader will actively promote his plans inside the country and insist on further EU reforms. Most likely, big changes will affect the energy sector.
This can serve as a catalyst for the euro's growth in the medium term.
As for the foreseeable future, Macron's victory will not bring a clear advantage to the EUR/USD pair. The re-election of the incumbent president for a second term was not a big surprise, so the euro's reaction to this news will be short-lived.
In the near future, the dynamics of the euro will still be determined by the rhetoric of the ECB, which remains dovish for now.
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