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According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair performed an increase to the level of 1.2600 on Monday. Today, it attempted to close but failed. The rebound of quotes from the level of 1.2600 worked in favor of the US currency and the pair's fall to the lower line of the ascending trend corridor. Thus, the "bullish" mood remains, but fixing the pair's rate under the corridor can significantly increase the probability of a new fall of the British dollar in the direction of the Fibo level of 423.6% (1.2432). Yesterday turned out to be very interesting, although initially, the calendar of economic events did not contain a single exciting entry. In addition to Christine Lagarde's spontaneous speech, which I already mentioned in the article on the euro/dollar, yesterday FOMC member Rafael Bostic spoke. I usually rarely consider speeches by members of the Fed Monetary committee, because the fame of Jerome Powell is more important. But this time I can't get past the words Bostic said.
He noted that after two "summer" interest rate hikes, the Fed may pause for an indefinite period. Bostic also noted that he is observing a gradual slowdown in inflation and a pause in raising rates may show whether the Fed is on the right track. The Fed does not refuse to raise the rate to a neutral level, which is 2.5% and may reach it by the end of the year. From my point of view, Bostic's rhetoric does not accurately reflect the situation with inflation. If the consumer price index has continued to grow for more than a year and is now above 8%, then it is unlikely that an increase in the rate to 2% can lower inflation to 2% too. Most likely, we are talking about stopping for a short period to track the dynamics of inflation - suddenly the indicator will continue to slow down even without raising the rate at each meeting. I do not think that the Fed, having reached the 2% rate level, will refuse new increases. For the pound, the policy of the Bank of England is now more important, which is already thinking about a pause in tightening monetary policy.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair secured above the corrective level of 127.2% (1.2250), which allows it to continue the growth process towards the next Fibo level of 100.0% (1.2674). A new "bearish" divergence at the MACD indicator allowed the pair to perform a reversal in favor of the US dollar and start falling towards the level of 1.2250.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders has not changed too much over the past week. The number of long contracts in the hands of speculators decreased by 2,856 units, and the number of short - by 3,213. Thus, the general mood of the major players remained the same - "bearish". The ratio between the number of long and short contracts for speculators still corresponds to the real picture on the market - longs are 4 times more than shorts (105,854-26,613), and large players continue to get rid of the pound. Thus, I expect that the pound may resume its decline in the coming weeks. But also such a strong gap between the number of longs and shorts may indicate a change in the trend in the market. Therefore, I do not rule out the fact that the Briton has completed its long fall.
News calendar for the USA and the UK:
UK - PMI index for the manufacturing sector (08:30 UTC).
UK - PMI index for the service sector (08:30 UTC).
US - index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (13:45 UTC).
US - PMI index for the service sector (13:45 UTC).
US - Chairman of the Fed Board of Governors Jerome Powell will deliver a speech (16:20 UTC).
On Tuesday, business activity indices were already released in the UK, which turned out to be significantly worse than market expectations. Perhaps because of this, we saw the fall of the Briton. The events remaining for the second part of the day can also greatly affect the mood of traders.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations to traders:
I recommended selling the pound if a rebound from the 1.2600 level is performed on the hourly chart with the goals of the lower boundary of the corridor and 1.2432. Now, these deals can be kept open. I recommend buying the British when rebounding from the lower line of the corridor on the hourly chart with a target of 1.2600.
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