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As we said in the previous article, inflation now remains the main problem in the United States, and the key event of the week is the Fed meeting, at which they are guaranteed to raise the rate to fight the "main problem". However, contrary to popular opinion, some market participants admit that the rate will be increased not by 0.5%, but immediately by 0.75%. I immediately recall the most aggressive FOMC hawk, James Bullard, who repeatedly called on the committee to raise the rate as soon as possible to the levels that would slow down inflation. According to Bullard's plan, the Fed should raise the rate to 3.5% this year, and next year - slowly reduce it. Bullard's colleagues may listen to him after inflation jumped to 8.6% in May.
At the same time, the large international bank Barclays published its forecast for Fed rates for 2022. First, he raised the overall forecast and now believes that by the end of the year the rate will be 3.25%. Second, Barclays analysts are now inclined to believe that on Wednesday the rate will be raised immediately by 0.75%. It should be noted that the Fed does not like to shock the markets, as Jerome Powell himself has repeatedly said. He almost always avoids solutions that have not yet been taken into account by the market. That is, it turns out that first, the Fed throws its future decision to the markets, as if warning them, and then accepts it. But this time, experts say, the situation may be different. In response to the new acceleration of inflation in May, the Fed may make an exception and raise the rate immediately by 0.75%. Barclays analysts believe that a similar decision can be made in July, but they are more inclined to only June. It should also be noted that a week before the next meeting, members of the monetary committee are prohibited from commenting on monetary policy, so none of them had the opportunity to hint to the markets about what decision the regulator will make this Wednesday, given the new "crazy" inflation. Therefore, a decision may indeed be made this week that will shock the markets. We don't even remember the last time the Fed raised the rate by 0.75%.
If the Fed decides to take such a step in June or July, there is no doubt that the stock market will crash down, and the US dollar will continue to strengthen against its European competitors. The cryptocurrency market may respond with some delay, but everything is clear there now - a "bearish" trend.
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