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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to raise its interest rate today, most likely by 50 basis points (0.50%) to 1.35%. This marks a 125 basis point gain since May and the fastest streak since 1994.
This active rise in the cost of borrowing indicates that central banks are fearing a recession, so they resort to reducing liquidity to fight inflation. Most probably, this trend will continue for a long time as everyone wants to keep national economies afloat.
Talking about currencies, dollar halted growth after Treasury yields began to fall down. The reason for that is the desire of investors to preserve their capital in the face of a recession in the United States. Reportedly, the yield on 10-year bonds fell below 3.0%. As for other world currencies, the real difference in interest rates will play an important role in determining the exchange rate. A decrease in it will most likely return risk appetite. This is why markets will stall ahead of the release of inflation report from the US, as well as the decisions of the ECB and the Fed on monetary policy. Another reason for moderate activity is the start of the summer holidays.
Summing up, volatility will remain high in markets, which, in turn, will cause sharp bursts of growth and decline in currency pairs. This will continue unless inflation stops growing, not only in the US, but also in other countries.
Forecasts for today:
USD/JPY
The pair is currently trading in the range of 134.50-136.75. If the upper limit holds, expect a local decrease to the lower limit.
GBP/USD
Although the pair declined, it is still trading above 1.2050. If pressure persists, the quote will fall to 1.1970. If not, the pair will rise to 1.2180.
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