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Yesterday, despite jitters in the banking sector, the ECB hiked its refi rate by 50 basis points. Maybe it is adding more tension to the stress in the banking sector. Today we will see, what the FED does. Will they hike by 25 basis points or not at all? If the FED doesn't hike, then we could have the perfect recipe for the perfect storm. Imagine if oil and natural gas begin to rally again, which is a realistic scenario, and the FED has blinked and lowered its rates in the worst case, then inflation really could accelerate out of control. This will be bad for the equities at first and push them much lower before a recovery.
Looking at the chart of the S&P 500, it looks like a slow disaster in the making and the risk of a panic decline during 2023 is clearly possible. We are saying it is likely to happen just that all the ingredients are available to trigger the panic.
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