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Futures on US stock indices fell in morning trading on Friday after another indistinct session, where bulls tried their best to prove their presence in the market. The fall is also observed in Treasury bonds, even though representatives of the Federal Reserve system chorused their determination to continue raising rates, only hinted that they would do it less aggressively. S&P 500 futures fell 0.8%. Tech stocks were the weakest link, with Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.9%. The yield on two-year Treasury bonds rose by five basis points.
As noted above, two voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee – James Bullard of St. Louis and Esther George of Kansas City – stressed that the US Central Bank would continue to raise interest rates until inflation returns to the 2% target. However, their opinions differed on the aggressiveness of raising interest rates at a meeting in September. However, the tone of the statements dispelled expectations that a series of weak economic data would push the Fed to a dovish turn of future policy.
Now it is quite obvious that the Fed is following the path of its main goal – reducing inflation, even if by risking a collapse of the economy.
Non-voting officials also confirmed the Fed's hawkish stance: Mary Daly from San Francisco said she would not rush to change course next year, completely refuting expectations of policy easing in mid-2023. Neel Kashkari from Minneapolis said that you first must cope with inflation before making plans to ease policy.
At the moment, interest rate futures have shifted towards a tougher policy change in September: with a 40 percent probability, the Fed will raise rates by 75 basis points.
It's also worth saying that investors are focused on the Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, which will take place next week. It will provide additional information about the direction of the policy. Recent data indicating a slowdown in activity highlighted the growing impact of rate hikes on the US economy, which led to the observed pressure on stock indexes. Economists see a 50 percent chance of a recession in the United States.
Premarket
Bed Bath & Beyond shares fell to $10.75 in premarket trading compared with Thursday's close at $18.55 after Ryan Cohen sold his entire stake.
Cryptocurrency-related stocks also sank significantly. The fall in the cryptocurrency ranks pulled down Coinbase Global Inc., Marathon Digital Holdings, and Riot Blockchain Inc securities.
As for the technical picture of the S&P500
The nearest support of $4,255 has failed, and only the intermediate level of $4,229 is ahead of the sellers. Its breakdown will open a direct road to the areas of $4,208 and $4,184, which will mean a fairly significant correction. It will be possible to talk about a new index growth only after controlling the resistance of $ 4,255, which will open the way to $ 4,290. It is the only way we will see fairly active growth in the areas of $4,319 and $4,376, where large sellers will return to the market again. At least there will be those who want to fix profits on long positions. A more distant target will be the $4,433 level.
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