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We can say that the latest data on inflation in the United States led the market to believe that the Federal Reserve will raise the refinancing rate by as much as 100 basis points. Everyone seemed to be doing just that, that they convinced everyone around of this. But one gets the feeling that it has finally dawned on everyone involved that despite the nature of the data, inflation in the United States is still declining for the second consecutive month. Therefore, there is no reason for the Fed to raise interest rates so massively. This means that tomorrow we expect a planned increase in the refinancing rate by only 75 basis points. This is also quite a lot, but not such a strong increase that everyone around them set up. It was this revision of one's own expectations that caused the single currency to return above parity. And given that the macroeconomic calendar is still empty, and will remain so until tomorrow's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, then most likely the market will remain in the area of current values. Although certain fluctuations caused by various guesses and reasoning in the media will be observed. But their scale will be quite modest. And most importantly, they will be extremely short-term.
The EURUSD currency pair managed to show upward interest during the past day, during which the quote jumped to the value of 1.0050. Despite the temporary shift of trading forces in favor of the bulls, there is still a stagnation stage along the parity level for the currency pair.
The technical instrument RSI H4 at the moment of the ascending cycle crossed the 50 middle line to the upside. This is the primary signal of a change in trading forces. RSI D1 is moving in the lower area of the 30/50 indicator, which corresponds to the direction of the main trend.
The MA sliding lines on Alligator H4 and D1 cross each other, the signal is not stable, which corresponds to the flat stage.
Expectations and prospects
In this situation, the primary signal of rising interest among traders was received from the market. To confirm it, the quote needs to stay above the value of 1.0050. In this case, movement in the direction of 1.0150 is possible.
Otherwise, the quote will return to the previous cycle of fluctuations along the parity level.
A complex indicator analysis in the short term indicates a sale due to the price rebound from the value of 1.0050. Indicators in the intraday period are focused on the upward cycle, signaling the purchase of the euro. In the medium term, a sell signal remains due to the direction of the main trend.
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