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The dynamics of EURUSD are influenced by global risk appetite together with the various rates of monetary policy tightening by the Fed and the ECB and the dispersion in economic growth in the US and the eurozone. And if the "bulls" have the upper hand in the first two scenarios, things are less certain in the third. In anticipation of a Santa Claus surge in the US stock market, the euro rose to $1.07 on New Year's Eve, but its prospects for 2023 are by no means promising.
The US stock indices' supporters are winning the historical battle. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has only dropped twice in successive years. At the same time, it turned out that the collapse at the end of the second year was more severe than the one at the beginning. It appears doubtful that the broad stock index would plunge even further given the 19% fall it will experience in 2022. But from a basic standpoint, the stock market is more likely to decline than rise.
If investors' attention was primarily on inflation last year, economic growth will be the main concern in 2023. Corporate profits and the S&P 500 have a gloomy future due to the recession and the slow drop in consumer spending. On the other hand, if the US economy avoids a recession as a result of a robust job market and robust household balance sheets, the Fed will be free to raise the federal funds rate. The US currency will gain strength if it increases by 6% or more.
Dynamics of the balance sheet and Fed rates
In actuality, the "bulls" on stock indices have just one extremely constrained route to success. It is linked to a further slowdown in inflation, which would compel the Federal Reserve to halt its rate-hike program and could even cause interest rates to drop as early as 2023. Not only will the S&P 500 benefit from this, but also the EURUSD.
As I've already mentioned, there are additional factors that support the euro. Although the eurozone economy indeed appears to be worse than the American one, buying the major currency pair based on the facts can give its supporters a comfortable edge as it was long believed to be utterly negative. The ECB's plan to increase the deposit rate from 2% to 3.4% is equivalent. Only 50 to 75 points appear to be the speed of the Fed's monetary restriction.
I believe that following the New Year, investors' attention will once again be drawn to the publication of statistics on the US labor market and inflation. The main event of the week will be the release of the first report on January 6. Another indication of the health of the American economy and a justification for selling EURUSD will be the increase in employment outside the agricultural sector of at least 200 thousand, as predicted by Bloomberg experts.
Technically, the Wolf Wave pattern is still being applied to the weekly chart of the major currency pair. The sentiment is still optimistic, so it is necessary to transition from short-term EURUSD sales in the direction of 1.0535 and 1.047 to medium-term purchases. The euro appears to have very good growth potential when compared to the US currency. Most likely, the numbers 1.092 and 1.113 will be seen in 2023.
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