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The dollar index as we noted in yesterday's analysis was making an overlapping sideways move that was rejected at resistance. A new low was expected and finally delivered. Now the index is reversing higher breaking above the first short-term resistance level at 82. We need now to see a break above the high at 82.20 because from that high we see the new low.
Prices start to break out of the downward sloping trend channel and we think it is very possible to low is in. Prices seem that they are making a trend reversal as expected for so long as the downward move from 84.75 was looking more like a correction than an impulsive wave down. Short-term resistance is found at 82.20 and 82.35. Short-term support is found at 81.60.
The daily chart as shown above is giving us the first signals of a trend reversal. However today's candlestick will need to break above yesterday's red candlestick and manage to close above in order to have a confirmed break of the resistance. The low at the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement is now important support that if broken, will push prices towards 81 and maybe 80.75.
Concluding we remain in our neutral to bullish stance. We expect 82.20 to be broken upwards together with the first short term resistance at 82.35. If prices pull back we could again enter long with yesterday's lows as stop. We believe the trend reversal is starting to take form.
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