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US stock index futures are muted, demonstrating little movement on Thursday while Treasury bond yields continue to decline. This comes as bets on a more significant global economic slowdown outweigh concerns about high inflation and monetary policy tightening.
The yield on two-year US Treasury bonds, which are particularly sensitive to monetary policy, has been falling for five consecutive days, the longest losing streak since July 2022. Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.2%, while the S&P 500 remained almost unchanged.
Yesterday's ADP payroll report in the US, coupled with the services purchasing managers' index, provided evidence that the world's largest economy is gradually faltering. Signs of a slowdown have also intensified concerns about the financial system, which has been significantly shaken by recent bank failures. Economists now estimate a 65% probability of a recession in the US, while the money markets are pricing in a 44% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its May meeting. This contrasts with the beginning of the week, when the probability of an increase was estimated at 70%.
However, before the Fed pauses its tightening cycle, it must achieve significant progress in reducing core inflation to 2%. Reaching this target, with oil prices surging again and the personal consumption expenditures index showing no significant decline, remains uncertain.
Another factor weighing down on risk assets is the upcoming Easter holidays.
As for commodities, oil is on track for its third consecutive weekly gain as an unexpected supply cut from OPEC+ and a decline in US inventories have worsened market outlooks. West Texas Intermediate crude futures are trading at $80 per barrel on Thursday. The European stock market has experienced slight growth, with the benchmark Stoxx 600 index ending its three-day decline thanks to strong corporate earnings and revenue growth.
As for the technical picture of the S&P 500, demand for risk assets remains low. The index will increase further if bulls can break through $4,116 and $4,150, putting $4,184 within reach. Another priority for bulls is maintaining control above $4,208, which would solidify a new bull market. If the index moves downward in the absence of driving factors and demand, buyers must assert themselves around $4,090. A breakout below that level would quickly push the trading instrument to $4,060, opening the way towards $4,038.
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