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The wave analysis on the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair remains unchanged. Over the past year, we have seen only three wave structures constantly alternating with each other. The construction of another three-wave downward structure is ongoing, which began on July 18 of last year. The presumed wave 1 is completed; wave 2 or b has complicated three or four times but is also now completed, as the decline in the pair has been ongoing for over a month.
The upward trend segment may still resume, but its internal structure will be unreadable. I strive to highlight unambiguous wave structures that do not tolerate double interpretation. If the current wave analysis is correct, the market has moved on to forming wave 3 or c. The successful attempt to break through the level of 1.0788, corresponding to 76.4% according to Fibonacci, once again confirmed the market's readiness for sales. The nearest target is now the level of 1.0637, which equates to 100.0% according to Fibonacci. But even now, I do not expect the end of the decline in the euro. Wave 3 or c should be more extended both in time and in goals.
The decline in the euro may resume this week.
The EUR/USD pair slightly increased on Monday, but the key factor is the unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 1.0880, corresponding to 61.8% according to Fibonacci. I do not expect a strong corrective wave 2, and I consider all declines in the euro in recent months as an impulsive wave 3 or c. If my assumption is correct, the decline in the pair's quotes may resume as early as this week.
Over the next four days, the news background will also likely be on the sellers' side. On Thursday and Friday, reports on inflation in Germany and the European Union may record a new slowdown. For example, in the European Union, this slowdown would mean that the ECB may move from words to action. I am talking about a potential rate cut, which is currently "scheduled" for the beginning of summer. Even the beginning of summer for the market is very early for the first easing. Earlier expectations were much later. But I assume that the "dovish" rhetoric will begin to sound from the mouths of ECB Governing Council members even earlier. Based on this, the news background will support the euro sales in the coming weeks.
As for the Fed, the rhetoric remains "hawkish." Inflation in the United States is higher than inflation in the European Union, and the US economy is much stronger than the EU economy. In my opinion, this is sufficient to expect the Fed to start lowering rates as late as possible and the ECB – as early as possible. Such an imbalance of expectations can play into the hands of sellers.
Based on the EUR/USD analysis, the construction of a bearish wave set continues. Wave 2 or b has taken a completed form, so in the near future, I expect to continue building an impulsive downward wave 3 or c with a significant decline in the pair. Another internal corrective wave is currently being constructed, which may end soon. I consider only sales with targets around the calculated level of 1.0462, corresponding to 127.2% according to Fibonacci.
On the larger wave scale, it is visible that the presumed wave 2 or b, which is already more than 61.8% in length according to Fibonacci from the first wave, may be completed. If this is the case, the scenario of building wave 3 or c and the decline in the pair below the 4-figure level has begun to unfold.
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