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The US dollar has been showing resilience in recent weeks, broadly strengthening across the market. However, our primary interest lies in its "relationship" with the euro and the pound. And here, things are not as smooth as one would hope. Demand for the US dollar is increasing, but it is not growing rapidly, as if the market is constantly uncertain about its actions. Indeed, there may be reasons for doubt, as monetary policy is not about precise timing and forecasts. A vivid example of this is the Federal Reserve. The market was expecting the first rate cut in March, but in the end, it may not even happen by June.
Nevertheless, both wave counts maintain their viability. Therefore, I remain bearish as I expect the dollar to strengthen further. There are relatively few important events in the upcoming week. Among the truly significant economic reports, I want to highlight durable goods orders on Tuesday and the final estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter on Thursday. At the end of the week, on Friday evening, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech.
The general economic picture in the US, from my perspective, remains favorable and should contribute to the US dollar's strength. For instance, the GDP report may show growth of 3.2% on a quarterly basis. This is certainly not 4.9% like in the third quarter, but the UK and the EU can only dream of such growth rates. By the way, I don't think this report will strongly support the dollar. Typically, the market reacts very calmly to GDP data.
Durable goods orders are quite important. However, the market has an inconsistent reaction to it. For instance, the last report was almost completely ignored, while the market reacted to the previous one. As for Powell's speech, it's always interesting. If he confirms the Fed's reluctance to rush into policy easing, highlights excessively high inflation, and expresses doubts about its further slowdown, this could significantly help the market by increasing demand for the dollar. Overall, I don't see any economic events in the EU and the UK that could support demand for these currencies. The most likely scenario will be for the dollar to appreciate and both instruments to continue the downward movement.
Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that a bearish wave set is being formed. Wave 2 or b is complete, so in the near future, I expect an impulsive downward wave 3 or c to form with a significant decline in the instrument. An internal corrective wave is currently being formed, which could have already ended. I am considering short positions with targets near the 1.0462 mark, which corresponds to 127.2% according to Fibonacci.
The wave pattern of the GBP/USD instrument suggests a decline. I am considering selling the instrument with targets below the 1.2039 level, because I believe that wave 3 or c will start sooner or later. However, unless wave 2 or b ends, the instrument can still rise to the level of 1.3140, which corresponds to 100.0% Fibonacci. The construction of wave 3 or c may have already started, but the quotes haven't moved far away from the peaks, so we cannot confirm this.
Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to work with, and they often bring changes.
If you are not confident about the market's movement, it would be better not to enter it.
We cannot guarantee the direction of movement. Don't forget about Stop Loss orders.
Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
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