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Trade analysis and tips for trading the European currency
In the first half of the day, the price test at 1.0848 occurred when the MACD started to move up from the zero mark, confirming the buy signal for the euro. As a result, the pair rose by approximately 20 pips, but we didn't quite reach the target level of 1.0879. Reasonable data on the leading consumer climate index in Germany managed to support the fading bullish momentum during the European session. Now, much depends on the US statistics, which are also quite interesting. Changes in durable goods orders, housing price index, and consumer confidence indicator will shape the course of the American session. Weak data is a reason to sell the dollar further and buy the euro, while strong reports can significantly harm the pair's upward correction. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0866 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to the level of 1.0898. At 1.0898, I will exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30–35 points from the entry point. The rise of the euro today can be expected only after weak US data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0852 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market upward. Expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.0866 and 1.0898.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I will sell the euro after reaching the level of 1.0852 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0831, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return after a good correction. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0866 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a downward market reversal. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.0852 and 1.0831.
On the chart:
Thin green line - entry price for buying the trading instrument.
Thick green line - the expected price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line - entry price for selling the trading instrument.
Thick red line - expected price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Beginner traders in the forex market should be very cautious when making entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You need to set stop orders to lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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