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Overview:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. Liquidity is thin as financial markets in several countries and stock market in the U.S. are shut today for Good Friday holiday. USD/JPY is underpinned by the reduced safe-haven appeal of yen and yen-funded carry trades amid positive global risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 5.78% to 13.36; S&P gained 0.14% overnight) after four-way talks involving Ukraine, Russia, the U.S. and the EU in Geneva ended with an agreement to defuse the crisis in Ukraine. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan's importers, higher U.S. Treasury yields; positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 79.86 versus 79.82 early Thursday) on Wall Street gains and upbeat U.S. data: U.S. jobless claims in week ended April 12 increased less-than-expected 2,000 to 304,000 (versus 315,000 forecast), Philadelphia Fed's index of manufacturing activity rose stronger-than-expected to 16.6 in April from 9.0 in March (versus 10.0 forecast). But the USD/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's exports, diminished expectations of further easing from the Bank of Japan and positions adjustment before weekend.
Technical сomment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, but stochastics is rising from oversold zone.
Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.65 and the second target at 102.90. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.65. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.45. The pivot point is at 101.85.
Resistance levels:
102.65
102.90
103.25
Support levels:
101.65
101.45
101.20
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