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Fundamental Overview:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting near-six-year high 107.39 on Friday. Financial markets in Japan were shut today for a public holiday. USD/JPY is underpinned by the positive USD sentiment on higher-than-expected preliminary University of Michigan U.S. September consumer sentiment index of 84.6 (versus forecast 83.0 and final-August 82.5); higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.609% versus 2.551% late Thursday) as market participants anticipate a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve in its policy statement on Wednesday. USD/JPY is also supported by the sell-yen orders from Japan importers. But USD sentiment are dented by the less-than-expected 0.6% increase in U.S. August retail sales (versus forecast +0.7%). USD/JPY gains are also tempered by the buy-yen orders from Japan exporters, weaker risk appetite after data released Saturday showed growth in China's industrial production slowed more than expected to six-year low of +6.9% on-year in August (versus forecast +8.7%) from +9.0% in July, while electricity production fell 2.2% on-year for first decline in four years.
Technical comment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought zone, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 107.50 and the second target at 107.85. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 106.60. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 106.20. The pivot point is at 106.90.
Resistance levels:
107.50
107.85
108.15
Support levels:
106.60
106.20
106
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