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Short-term view – the cross favors bears in all time frames. We used to be bullish with sl 181.65. We recommended 175.75 and 174.00. We still are waiting for 174.00. In the previous week, the cross closed below 50Wsma, which added more bearish views in the medium term as well. In last 8 months, the 50Wsma pushed the price to higher levels in 4 occasions. Whenever the price corrected towards 50Wsma, moving average helped the price to print new fresh high. But this time it was failed to push the price higher. This factor tempts me to look at 170.00 in the medium term. As we know, UK is slowly moving towards election in May. Market participants expect the pound to get under a downward pressure. In case the price closes below 175.45, new bearish wave is likely to be generated towards lower levels.
Intraday view – the cross edged lower rejected 35DEMA in the four-hour chart, probably double top at 176.52. The cross has found immediate support at 175.66 and 175.30. We recommend selling below 175.60 with targets at 175.30, 175.00, and 174.00. In case the pound turned to be supported by UK CPI data, we can expect a mild pullback to take place. In this case, we recommend buying above 176.20 with targets at 176.45 and 176.75. Weekly resistance is seen at 177.40. Until the price closes below 177.40, bears can challenge new lower levels in the near term.
Trade: Selling below 175.60
Buying above 176.20
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