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Global macro analysis for 25/10/2016:
The IFO Business Climate data published this morning has beat market participants' expectations. The most important IFO indicator has increased to the level of 110.5 points from 109.5 points a month ago and exceeded the forecast of 109.6 points. The IFO-Expectations sub-index was better than expected as well with the number of 106.1 points for this month vs 104.5 points a month ago and consensus 104.5. Another sub-index, IFO-Current Assesment, also has beaten expectations, providing the number of 115.0 points, a 0.3 point better than last month reading. Moreover, the comments from the German institute for economic studies regarding this news release are quite interesting as well. The IFO report said, that the Brexit vote has been digested by the economy already and there have been good signals from China and the US recently that are pleasing exporters. Consumption remains a pillar of the German economy. Besides, investment together with producers and exporters of goods are recovering. In conclusion, a solid and optimistic report from Germany should boost the sentiment on global markets.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/GBP technical picture on the daily time frame. After making the swing high at the level of 0.9268, the market declined towards the next important technical support at the level of 0.8816, but has not touched it yet. The golden trend line will be still providing the dynamic support until is clearly violated. The trend is clearly bullish and it will remain bullish as long as the level of 0.8340 is not tested again and eventually violated.
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