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Global macro overview for 23/02/2017:
The upbeat minutes from the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting did not lift the U.S. Dollar much, despite the fact that many officials considered a rate increase might be "appropriate fairly soon". The main reason for this unexpected U.S. Dollar behavior was the situation inside of the FOMC committee: there is a clear divergence in views with split opinions and a high degree of uncertainty. Some policymakers see only a modest inflationary pressures and claim, that there will be ample of time to respond anyway. On the other hand, there are policymakers who think the increasing employment and undershooting of unemployment in the longer term might cause an upside risk to inflation (the committee's objective target is 2%, current PCE inflation is 1.6%). The majority of policymakers agreed that current near-term risks to the economy appeared roughly balanced. In conclusion, the main message here is a high degree of uncertainty, especially over fiscal policy and inflation and no clear clues regarding a possibility of the interest rate hike in March 2017 were given. However, the CME Group FedWatch tool is currently showing 82% probability of a 0.25% hike at the FED next meeting.
Let's now take a look at the U.S. Dollar index technical picture in the H4 time frame. The most important technical resistance at the level of 101.77 was challenged after the FOMC Minutes had been released, but the price was capped and reversed. Currently, the 21-period moving average around the level of 101.30 is providing the dynamic support for the price, but the market is trading in overbought conditions anyway. The technical support must hold at the level of 100.99, otherwise, the sequence of higher highs and higher lows will get invalidated.
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