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Trading plan for 24/02/2017:
On Friday, 24th of February, there will be three important economic releases during the European and American trading sessions: Consumer Price Index from Canada and New Home Sales and Consumer Sentiment data from the U.S.
USD/CAD analysis for 24/02/2017:
The Consumer Price Index from Canada will be released at 01:30 pm GMT and the market participants are expecting upbeat data: the CPI is expected to increase from -0.2% to 0.3% on a monthly basis and from 1.5% to 1.6% on a year-to-year basis. This kind of inflation expectations might suggest a further rebound of the Canadian dollar after yesterday's weak retail sales data. Any number better than 0.3% might cause a sell-off in the USD/CAD pair.
So let's take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture to find out any good trading setup before the news release. The price has broken out of the golden channel and now is approaching the technical support at the level of 1.0381. In a case of better-than-expected data, this level will be easily violated and the market will target the next support at the level of 1.0323.
USD/JPY analysis for 24/02/2017:
The U.S. February Consumer Sentiment is scheduled for release at 03:00 pm GMT today, together with New Home Sales data. The consumer sentiment index is expected to have declined a bit to 96 from January's 98.5. The large increase of the sentiment index in January still limits any immediate upward gains. The index has rarely reached 100-level in the past and the last time it was just before the dotcom bust in early 2000's.
The data from the U.S. housing market is expected to reach another pretty good level of 567K homes in the last month, which would have been better result than 536K homes sold in January. The better-than-expected number would provide another prove of a stable housing market in the U.S., but the sales are still below a post-crisis record of 622K homes sold.
Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture on the H1 time frame. The bulls did not manage to break out above the technical resistance at the level of 112.90 and the price is not reversing towards the next technical support at the level of 112.54. For US Dollar to rally here, both economic releases must deliver better-than-expected data. In that case, the target for USD/JPY rate would be at the level of 113.27 and higher. However, if the data disappoint the market participants, the drop can extend towards the next support at the level of 112.23.
Market snapshot - GBP/USD ahead of critical resistance
The GBP/USD pair has been trading above the intraday resistance at the level of 1.2523 since yesterday and now the bulls might try to test the resistance at the level of 1.2581. Any violation of this level would lead to another test of the technical resistance at the level of 1.2705 - 1.2729. A lack of an impulsive rally above the resistance will likely end up with the price returning back to the range.
Market snapshot - GOLD break out towards 61% Fibo level
The yellow metal has finally broken higher above the technical resistance at the level of 1,241 and now is approaching the 61%Fibo at the level of 1,255. The fact that this level will act as a resistance now and the deeply overbought market conditions might indicate a possible corrective move in this market. The growing bearish divergence supports this view.
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