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Global macro overview for 09/03/2017:
According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) crude oil inventories data recorded a build of 8209k barrels in the week ending March 3rd following a 1500k build the previous week. The data was a big surprise for the market participants as the number they expected was at the level of 1100k barrels, which is a slight decline. Crude inventories at 528.4 million barrels are now 7.7% higher than year-ago levels and at a fresh record high having increased for nine weeks in a row. In conclusion, despite the recent OPEC agreement to reduce the crude oil production (January 2017), the stockpiles are still getting bigger and this will be a hot topic during the next OPEC meeting on 25th May in Vienna.
Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The psychological support of an even number of $50 had just been violated and currently, the market is trading around the level of 49.40 at the time of writing. The market conditions look oversold and the corrective cycle is now expected to test the resistance at the level of $50. Please notice. that only a sustained violation of the level of 50.70 - 50.91 will change the current bearish bias to more bullish. Otherwise lower prices are expected after the corrective cycle is done.
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