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Trading plan for 09/03/2017:
On Thursday 9th of March, the most important event is the European Central Bank interest rate decision and press conference at 12:45 pm GMT. During the U.S. session, the most important event is Unemployment Claims data release at 01:30 pm GMT.
EUR/USD analysis for 09/03/2017:
This pair will be under a high influence of macroeconomic news today: ECB interest rate decision during European session and U.S. job market data during American session. The ECB is expected to leave the interest rate at the level of 0.00%, together with asset purchase target at 80bln Euro, deposit facility rate at -0.40% and marginal lending facility of 0.25%. The more significant ECB policy changes will be delayed until June, mainly due to a possible FED interest rate hike in March. Nevertheless, the forward guidance might be adjusted slightly at today's meeting as the latest ECB staff projections are likely to be more optimistic on growth with higher inflation estimates. This is why the market participants should pay special attention to any change in ECB President Mario Draghi overall tone, which currently is very dovish, despite relatively optimistic data.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at H1 time frame before the news is released. The market had bounced from 78%Fibo support at the level of 1.0525 and got back to the trading range. The recent breakout above the golden trend line might suggest, that the bull camp is getting ready to attack the next technical resistance at the level of 1.0630, but so far the price got capped around 505Fibo at the level of 1.0567. If ECB will leave the interest rates unchanged then the price should rally higher towards the level of 1.0630. If, however, the ECB will cut the interest rate, then the price might break out below the 1.0524 support and head lower towards the level of 1.0493 and below.
Market snapshot - SP500 starts the corrective cycle
After another higher high at the level of 240.22, the SPY (SP500 ETF) has been trying to develop a corrective cycle in order to fill the last gap and test the technical support at the level of 237.29. This support has been violated and now the market is slowly moving lower toward the next technical support at the level of 235.17. If this level is violated, then the sequence of higher highs and higher lows that are typical for an uptrend will be broken. This means the market might start a more complex correction that could even extend toward the 230's level.
Market snapshot - GOLD still in corrective downtrend
Since the failure at the 61%Fibo level at $1255, the price of the yellow metal is still trading inside of the corrective parallel channel ( dashed blue). Just before the NFP Friday data release the price had found the support at the level of $1205 in oversold market conditions. The critical level for the bulls is the technical resistance at the level of $1216 and this level might be tested if the NFP data are worse than expected. Otherwise, the correction might extend lower, toward the next technical support at the level of $1197 and below.
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