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Trading plan for 10/03/2017:
On Friday 10th of March, the main macroeconomic event is Non-Farm Employment Change data release from the US, but the market participants will pay attention to the Industrial Production data from the UK and Unemployment Rate data from Canada.
EUR/GBP analysis for 10.03/2017:
The Industrial Production data from the UK is expected to have decreased 0.6% in January after spiking 2.1% higher in December. Nevertheless, after two above-average months, a decrease should not be interpreted too negatively. The increase from a year ago is expected to be 3.0%.
Let's take a look at the EUR/GBP technical picture at the daily time frame. After the break out above the long-term golden trend line, the price is heading north towards the level of 0.8855. The level of 0.8647 will now act as a technical support for the bulls. The market is trading above all of the moving averages and the sequence of the higher highs and higher lows had not been violated. The uptrend is still valid and the bias remains to the upside.
USD/JPY analysis for 10/03/2017:
The NFP Payrolls data are scheduled for release at 01:30 pm GMT and after an upbeat ADP figures the market participants are expecting another set of good numbers: the average is 200k new jobs versus 227k a month ago. Moreover, the Unemployment Rate is expected to decrease slightly to the level of 4.7% from 4.8% while the Average Hourly Earnings are expected to increase 0.3% from 0.1% a month ago (apparently, this will be the most important data after the NFP figure itself). It is worth to mention, that the better than expected data will increase the already high odds of a March interest rate hike. According to FedWatch tool by CME Group, the implied probability of March interest rate hike is now at 88.6%. If data on NFP beat, it will get almost certain.
Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture before the NFP data dump. The market is trading in the resistance area between the levels of 114.98 - 115.63, but the trading conditions are not overbought yet. If data on NFP beat the expectations, then the market might break out of this zone and head towards the next technical resistance at the level of 116.85. If NFP do not beat the expectations, then the next level to watch is the technical support at the level of 114.78, because any violation of this level will open the road to the next support at the level of 113.55.
USD/CAD analysis for 10/03/2017:
The Employment Change and Unemployment Rate data from Canada are scheduled for release at 01:30 pm GMT. The Unemployment Rate is expected to stay unchanged at the level of 6.8% and the Employment Change (the number of the employed in the country) is expected to decline 4.8k after a good increase of 48k a month ago. Any worse than expected data will raise the questions regarding the sustainability of the Canadian job market.
Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is trading in overbought conditions ahead of the Canadian and US data dump, so any worse than expected data will trigger the corrective cycle towards the next support at the level of 1,3460 and 1.3237. Nevertheless, the most important support remains at the level of 1.3388 - 1.3367 and in order to continue upward, this zone cannot be violated.
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