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Trading plan for 15/03/2017:
Thursday 15th of March will be a very busy day in financial markets. During the European and American session, global investors will pay attention to Claimant Count Change data from the U.K., Consumer Price and Retail Sales from the U.S. and the most anticipated event - the FOMC Interest Rate Decision, press conference of US Fed Chair and Economic forecasts.
GBP/USD analysis for 15/03/2017:
The Claimant Count Change data are scheduled for release at 10:30 am GMT and market participants expect that the number of people who are claiming unemployment benefit will increase by 3.2k after an impressive drop of -42.4k last month. It does not necessary mean the number of unemployed people jumped unexpectedly, but it might be just a mean reversion.
Let's take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture in the H4 time frame. The support at the level of 1.2108 has held the line and in a case of a better than expected data ( less than 3.2k) this pair might rally even further towards the next resistance at the level of 1.2303. In a case of worse than expected data (more than 3.2k), the market might stay in the range between the levels of 1.2250 - 1.2108 or the bears will try to test the support again.
EUR/USD analysis for 15/03/2017:
The greatest impact on today's price action and volatility on the EUR/USD pair comes from the FOMC interest rate decision, that is scheduled for release at 06:00 pm GMT. Market participants expect an interest rate hike from the level of 0.78% to 1.00%, but it looks like most of such expectations have been already discounted by the markets. This is why global investors will keep an eye on new FED's economic forecasts and then the press conference. The most important issue on the further FED monetary policy regards the number of rate hikes in 2017. The other equally important issue is the exact timing of further interest rate hikes: how much is it possible for FED to hike again in June 2017? So this will be the plan to trade the FOMC today:
- if FED WILL hike to 1.00% and Janet Yellen delivers a hawkish stance during the press conference and today's economic forecast pushes the outlook for US economic growth this year higher than 2.1%, then U.S. Dollar will advance massively, which means EUR/USD will drop notably (a target is at the level of 1.0493 with a possible extension towards 1.0339).
-if FED will NOT hike to 1.00% and Janet Yellen expresses more dovish rhetoric during the press conference and today's economic projections do not push the outlook for US economic growth this year higher than 2.1%, then U.S. Dollar will decline massively, which means EUR/USD will rally substantially (a target is 1.0713 with a very possible extension towards 1.0828)
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