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Global macro overview for 15/03/2017:
The latest weekly American Petroleum Institute (API) crude oil inventory data for the week ending March 10th reported a draw of 0.53 million barrels. This data were a kind of relief after a huge 11.6 million barrels build last week and were better than market expectations of a 2.5 million barrels increase. Nevertheless, in its latest monthly report, OPEC expected the oil market to remain over-supplied during the first half of 2017 due to an upward revision to US shale output (record rig count levels) and also reported increased global stocks. Moreover, the Saudi Arabian output increased back above 10.00 million bpd for February which added more worries to the overall difficult situation.
Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil techncial picture in the H4 time frame. The market is clearly trading in oversold conditions, so some kind of a relief rally is now needed. Nevertheless, the bulls seem to struggle with the technical resistance zone between the levels of 48.61 - 49.22. As long as the price is trading below this zone, no real rally higher will happen and further news release might spark another sell-off any time now. The next techcnial support is seen at the level of 47.09.
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