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Global macro overview for 28/07/2017:
The US Durable Goods Orders data has beat the market participants expectations. The June data of US Durable Good Orders surged to 6.5% from -0.1% a month ago, beating the expectations of 3.5%. The sub index of Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transport noted a slight 0.2% gain for the month compared with expectations of a 0.4% gain. The Underlying Orders were revised to show a 0.6% gain for May to give a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. The biggest increase was noted in Capital Goods Orders that rose 19.0% on the month, primarily due to a surge in aircraft orders. Non-defence capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, which is a key underlying indicator of capital spending fell 0.1% on the month, although there was a revised 0.9% gain in May which gave a 2.8% annual increase.
The data support the underlying Federal Reserve confidence in broader expansion in investments in the US. After the Wednesday FOMC statement, the market expectations regarding another rate hike in December 2017 has dipped below 40%, but currently, it jumped to 46%. Moreover, this might be the beginning of a more crucial change of mind among the market participants, despite the ongoing sell-off of US Dollar. Although the confirmation of the start of a reduction in the balance sheet total in September is a positive impulse for USD, fears of inflation will weigh on the expected path of rate hikes, thus exerting pressure on the yield curve and on the USD. The next data from the US job market in form of NFP Payroll are scheduled for release next Friday and if they beat the expectations, the odd of a more substantial US Dollar recovery will increase.
Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The market is trying to bounce from the severely oversold levels, but so far the important technical resistance at the level of 94.47 hasn't been violated yet. The momentum indicator stays below the fifty level as well, which indicates the market participants are still waiting for more data from the US economy.
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