11.05.202610:30 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Strategy explains conditions that could lead to selling Bitcoin

In a recent interview, Strategy CEO Fong Le confirmed that the company could sell its Bitcoin holdings, but only if several strict conditions are met. The statement sheds light on the potential moves the firm might take regarding its sizable Bitcoin reserves.

Fong Le emphasized that selling BTC would be considered a last resort, for example, to secure dividend payments on STRC preferred shares at 11.5%, a very attractive yield for investors. Another major reason for liquidating Bitcoin assets could be tax optimization. This indicates that Strategy views its Bitcoin portfolio not only as an investment but also as a tool for corporate financial management, including tax planning. Such an approach demonstrates maturity in the company's strategy for managing its crypto reserves.

Despite management's statements, market expectations for Strategy to sell Bitcoin remain high. According to Polymarket data, the probability that Strategy will start selling BTC is estimated by traders at 89%. That high percentage suggests market participants likely see realistic scenarios in which selling becomes necessary for the company.

This disconnect between official statements and market expectations underscores the difficulty of forecasting the actions of large Bitcoin holders. Traders should continue to closely monitor Strategy's financial reports, changes in its debt structure, and the overall macroeconomic environment — all factors that could influence management's decision to sell BTC.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $82,200, which opens a direct path to $83,600 and then $85,600. The far target is the high around $87,900; breaking that would indicate attempts to resume a bull market. On a decline, buyers are expected at $80,100. A drop below that area could quickly push BTC toward $78,200, with the far downside target around $76,300.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $2,360 opens a direct path to $2,407. The far target is the high near $2,446; breaking that would signal strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On a drop, buyers are expected at $2,307. A fall below that area could quickly push ETH toward $2,248, with the far downside target around $2,182.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.