2016.05.1902:26:00UTC+00Rate Hike Odds Improve Sharp After Fomc Minutes

After yesterday’s FOMC minutes gave clearest indication ever for a June rate hike, interest rates market have adjusted sharply in anticipation of such.

As per the minutes, many participants believed a riser would be appropriate at June meeting if the economic data and job market conditions continue to improve as inflation heads towards 2% target in the medium term.

• Market is now attaching 70% probability that there won’t be a hike in June, compared to 81% before the minutes.

• Market is attaching 51% probability that there will be a hike in July, compared to 62% before, predicting no hike.

• Before minutes market was pricing 55% chance of a hike in September, now pricing 63% odds of such.

• Market is attaching 66% hike probability in November compared to 58% before and 79% probability for December, up from 72% before.

Dollar index is currently trading at 95.22, down -3.45% YTD.