2026.02.2623:50:00UTC+00Japan’s Industrial Output Outlook Improves, but Remains in Negative Territory

Japan’s industrial production forecast for two months ahead showed a partial recovery in March, offering a tentative sign of stabilisation after a sharp contraction at the start of the year. According to data updated on 26 February 2026, the indicator reached -2.6% in March 2025 month-over-month, compared with a steeper decline of -4.3% recorded in February 2026.

The figures, measured on a month-over-month basis, indicate that while manufacturers still expect output to fall, the pace of decline is moderating. The “actual” March reading reflects the projected change in production compared with the previous month, whereas the February figure captured expectations at that time relative to January. The improvement from -4.3% to -2.6% suggests that downside pressures on Japan’s industrial sector may be easing, although a return to positive growth has yet to materialise.