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The Russian ruble traded near 75 per USD in April, its strongest level in three years, supported by higher energy prices and elevated interest rates set by the Bank of Russia. Oil and gas prices remained high as the US and Iran continued to restrict commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, bolstering demand for alternative sources of crude and natural gas. At the same time, the US suspended selected sanctions on Russian oil to ease the global supply shortage.
These developments not only boosted foreign exchange inflows from Russian energy exports, but also coincided with a growing share of those exports being priced in rubles, as Russia’s financial system remains largely shut out of dollar-based transactions. The initial sharp depreciation of the ruble following the outbreak of the Iran conflict prompted the Russian government to halt purchases of foreign currency funded by energy revenues that had been used to build up fiscal reserves. Meanwhile, the Bank of Russia signaled it may be nearing the end of its rate-cutting cycle, citing persistent upside risks to inflation.
