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Soybean futures rose to about $11.80 per bushel, a seven-week high, as ongoing geopolitical tensions bolstered biofuel demand and harvest delays in Argentina tightened global supply conditions. Argentina, a key player in the global soybean market with domestic processing targets of 41 million tonnes, has seen fieldwork severely disrupted by persistent rainfall in Santa Fe province. Harvest progress has stalled at just 10%, compared with a seasonal average of 60%, leaving a 50–percentage-point shortfall that marks a significant logistical disruption.
In the United States, soybean planting has reached 12%, but widespread rainfall in the forecast is expected to hinder fieldwork in the near term. At the same time, higher energy prices, driven in part by disruptions in the critical Strait of Hormuz shipping route, have increased demand for soybean oil in biodiesel production. Market attention is now shifting to next month’s US–China trade talks, which are expected to provide further guidance on the outlook for export demand.