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US heating oil futures climbed above $4.10 per gallon in late April, their highest level in more than three weeks, as intensifying supply disruptions in the Middle East continued to limit feedstock availability for refiners. A standoff between the US and Iran has persisted, with neither side willing to alter its conditions for an agreement, and reciprocal naval restrictions still in place. These measures are constraining the movement of oil and product tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
As a result, shipping through this key chokepoint has been largely suspended since early March, disrupting an estimated 20 million barrels per day of crude and refined product flows. Reflecting the tighter supply backdrop, EIA data showed that US distillate inventories — which include diesel and heating oil — declined by 4.5 million barrels last week.
At the same time, seasonal forecasts indicate above-normal temperatures, which could dampen heating demand as the US transitions into the warmer months. Even so, heating oil prices are on track to post a fourth consecutive monthly gain.
