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The New Zealand dollar inched up to $0.583 but remained near a three-week low, as markets weighed the domestic policy outlook against global developments. Investors still anticipate further tightening from the RBNZ, but the implied probability of a May rate hike has slipped to 45% from over 60% earlier in the week, after Governor Anna Breman signaled that first-quarter core inflation measures remained steady within the bank’s 1–3% target band.
Sentiment was further dampened by data showing New Zealand business confidence turning negative in April for the first time since 2023, with the conflict in the Middle East dragging on expectations for profits and sales. On the geopolitical front, President Trump chose to maintain a blockade on Iran’s ports pending a nuclear agreement, keeping investors cautious.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged as widely expected, though the decision was marked by hawkish dissent from several officials. Despite the softer backdrop, the kiwi remains on track for a monthly gain of more than 1%.
