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Italy’s GDP grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2026, beating market expectations of a 0.1% increase, according to a preliminary estimate from ISTAT. The expansion was driven by net exports, which remained positive despite the higher prices of imported energy in the final month of the quarter, and was sufficient to offset a negative contribution from changes in inventories. On a year-on-year basis, GDP rose by 0.8%.
On an annualized basis, the data point to GDP growth of 0.5% for 2026. This marks a slowdown from the 0.7% recorded in 2025 and is in line with the Bank of Italy’s revised 0.5% forecast. However, it falls short of the 0.8% growth projections previously published by ISTAT and the European Union, which were issued before the outbreak of war in the Middle East put additional pressure on the European economy.
