2026.05.2607:16:02UTC+00South Africa Business Cycle Index Rises Most in Nearly 5 Years

South Africa’s composite leading business cycle indicator rose by 2.4% month-on-month in March 2026, following an upwardly revised 0.6% increase in February. This was the strongest expansion since May 2021. Six of the seven available components contributed positively, led by faster six-month smoothed growth in the real M1 money supply and a wider interest rate spread. The main negative contribution came from a deterioration in the composite leading business cycle indicator of South Africa’s major trading partners.

The composite coincident indicator fell by 0.1% in February 2026, reflecting declines in the utilization of production capacity in the manufacturing sector and in the industrial production index. By contrast, the composite lagging indicator edged up by 0.6% in February.